TheMoralEconomist1
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January 31st:
Sure, Donald Trump’s all you hear about in the news for the US presidential election, but is he really all that important? Unfortunately, yes he is.
Primaries
The betting markets from betfair.com are predicting he has nearly a 50 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination to run for presidency. For those of you unfamiliar with how the US system works, a candidate must first win the Democrat or Republican nomination in the primaries, and then these candidates go head to head in the general election. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is in second for the Republican primaries and has a 30 percent chance.
Unsurprisingly, Hillary Clinton is expected to dominate the Democrat primaries. She currently has over an 80 percent chance of winning, while Bernie Sanders has a 17 percent chance. And Martin O’Malley has a… Oh wait no one gives a shit.
General Election
Hillary Clinton is, by far, expected to win the general election, with a 50 percent chance of becoming president. Another way of putting it is there is a 50 percent chance of the US having its first woman president. Yay!
Trump has a 19 percent chance of winning, Rubio has a 12 percent chance, and Sanders has an 8 percent chance of winning. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz barely register a pulse, with 4 and 3 percent respectively.
Keep in mind, this is all what’s expected right now. Things are constantly changing, so keep an eye on what’s affecting the results. If Hillary Clinton gets indicted by the FBI (fingers crossed), then everything is up in the air.
Interestingly, although the market expects Trump to win in the primaries, he’s expected to lose in the general election against Clinton.
Why are betting markets more accurate than polls?
There are a few reasons why betting markets are more likely to accurately predict the election result than polls. First, that’s what the nerds find. Second, and most important, bettors have skin in the game, so they have to accurately predict or they’ll lost money. Unlike, some shirtless redneck who bullshits a pollster, the bettor is take his or her job seriously. Third, bettors will take into account information not included in the polls, such as the probability that Donald Trump will say something so obnoxious that he gets knocked out of the race (that may not be possible). Finally, people aren’t necessarily always going to tell the truth to a pollster.
Check out electionbettingodds.com to see odds from betfair expressed in an easy to understand way. And yes, you can actually make money betting on these things. But before you go running to the piggy bank, just like the stock market, you can lose a lot of money.
Update after Iowa Elections
February 2nd:
This is exactly what I was talking about. Everything is up in the air now, after just 1 state had elections. Iowa is the first state in the US that has elections, so often it is viewed as signaling what will happen in the coming months.
View attachment 111
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders nearly tied, each getting 50 percent of the Democrat vote. Ted Cruz won the Republican caucus with 28 percent of the vote, Donald Trump came in second with 24 percent, and Marco Rubio nearly tied Trump with 23 percent.
So, what happened in the betting markets?
View attachment 110
While Clinton and Sanders barely moved, Trump and Rubio completely flip flopped. What's interesting is that even with Cruz winning the election, he was affected the least. Trump went from a nearly guaranteed win to Rubio being the favored candidate. This just goes to show how much uncertainty there is in the market right now
Sure, Donald Trump’s all you hear about in the news for the US presidential election, but is he really all that important? Unfortunately, yes he is.
Primaries
The betting markets from betfair.com are predicting he has nearly a 50 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination to run for presidency. For those of you unfamiliar with how the US system works, a candidate must first win the Democrat or Republican nomination in the primaries, and then these candidates go head to head in the general election. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is in second for the Republican primaries and has a 30 percent chance.
Unsurprisingly, Hillary Clinton is expected to dominate the Democrat primaries. She currently has over an 80 percent chance of winning, while Bernie Sanders has a 17 percent chance. And Martin O’Malley has a… Oh wait no one gives a shit.
General Election
Hillary Clinton is, by far, expected to win the general election, with a 50 percent chance of becoming president. Another way of putting it is there is a 50 percent chance of the US having its first woman president. Yay!
Trump has a 19 percent chance of winning, Rubio has a 12 percent chance, and Sanders has an 8 percent chance of winning. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz barely register a pulse, with 4 and 3 percent respectively.
Keep in mind, this is all what’s expected right now. Things are constantly changing, so keep an eye on what’s affecting the results. If Hillary Clinton gets indicted by the FBI (fingers crossed), then everything is up in the air.
Interestingly, although the market expects Trump to win in the primaries, he’s expected to lose in the general election against Clinton.
Why are betting markets more accurate than polls?
There are a few reasons why betting markets are more likely to accurately predict the election result than polls. First, that’s what the nerds find. Second, and most important, bettors have skin in the game, so they have to accurately predict or they’ll lost money. Unlike, some shirtless redneck who bullshits a pollster, the bettor is take his or her job seriously. Third, bettors will take into account information not included in the polls, such as the probability that Donald Trump will say something so obnoxious that he gets knocked out of the race (that may not be possible). Finally, people aren’t necessarily always going to tell the truth to a pollster.
Check out electionbettingodds.com to see odds from betfair expressed in an easy to understand way. And yes, you can actually make money betting on these things. But before you go running to the piggy bank, just like the stock market, you can lose a lot of money.
Update after Iowa Elections
February 2nd:
This is exactly what I was talking about. Everything is up in the air now, after just 1 state had elections. Iowa is the first state in the US that has elections, so often it is viewed as signaling what will happen in the coming months.
View attachment 111
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders nearly tied, each getting 50 percent of the Democrat vote. Ted Cruz won the Republican caucus with 28 percent of the vote, Donald Trump came in second with 24 percent, and Marco Rubio nearly tied Trump with 23 percent.
So, what happened in the betting markets?
View attachment 110
While Clinton and Sanders barely moved, Trump and Rubio completely flip flopped. What's interesting is that even with Cruz winning the election, he was affected the least. Trump went from a nearly guaranteed win to Rubio being the favored candidate. This just goes to show how much uncertainty there is in the market right now